Sunday, February 16, 2025

Economics, 2024

TL;DR -- Economics? About time. We looked at the science and medicine awards earlier. We have a category of Nobel as the posts are stacking up. A discussion of ChatGpt brought the additional Nobels to attention. The gist of the work is that GenAI/LLM will have minimal impact which brings up questions, such as, why all of the wasted effort and hype? 

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We just made a "Nobel" category since there are so  many posts and there will be more. Our last post on the subject was about a family member starting an organization that supports excellence for high school students. The focus is mathematics as it will become more important due to computing's use (misuse) of the phenomenality and to its role as supporting science and technology. Other posts dealt with awards this summer that brought to fore an awareness of machine learning (couched as an misnomer, via "AI"). 

Now, economics? On Ln, we saw discussion of AI what was mature where a remark noted that an expert at MIT suggested that gains from AI will be less than 1%. Wait? Sounds like our sort of argument. Besides, one of John's graduate advisors was from MIT. And, John McCarthy was there. It, with Stanford and Carnegie Mellon, was a noted academic resource back in the '70s and '80s, prior to the downturn that was due to several factors. The term for this was "AI winter" with this concept being brought forth now due to the hype-driven scene that we have seen for two years. 
  • ChatGPT (Feb, 2023) -- We had written on AI for a long while, using AIn't for the most part. We are dealing with buckets-of-bits that are "warping our imaginations, clouding our intuition" (as we wrote elsewhere). But, notice that this post is about three months late, since OpenAI released their toy/tool in Nov of 2022. I had not been paying close attention to them. Since that time, there are several other posts. And, we have written elsewhere on the matter. Needless to say, in this interchange, we asked about Thomas Gardner. And, instructed it on what we knew then, or thought that we knew. Irony? At that same time, while I was looking at Wolfram's use (Mathematica) of ChatGPT (and others), some research work was being done via WikiTree (see Currrent Status). With that work, the TGS, Inc. foundations were shaken. We did not fall and are in a repair state. Sherborne, UK records show all of the kids, but Seeth, being born in England. Now, we are keeping to the notion of Thomas going back and forth and explain our reasoning. 
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For now, here are a few links to material about the award. 
The unconstrained hype is normal for people. Newton (gravity and light guy) lost lots of money in some silly scheme. Bohr (more smart) said that the ca-pital-sino (our neologism) cannot allow winning without insider information. Oh? Yes, long ago, he said that. 

Too, where are the engineers? And, we will invoke KBE (knowledge based engineering) which allows the well-educated brains to qualitatively control the beasts of quantitative modes. GenAI/LLM for too long has adopted the aura of Einstein and his mathematics. Well, physics might win some battles with Ma Nature. It does not rule, yet. Nor will it. 

Computing? Out of mathematics via physics. Less than mature in so many ways. 

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The Nobel's work can be used to analyze our progress over time as we consider those who got awarded and all of their compatriots, of their time. We will engage in that sort of discussion. 

Remarks: Modified: 02/16/2025

02/16/2025 -- 

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