Numbers, again

The last post looked at numbers in relation to what is known about ancestors. In that case, the number was the percentage of known ancestors in the 10th generation (see image in prior post). At that generation, one had one-thousand-twenty-three (1,023) ancestors (allowing for duplication due to possible intermarriage during the later generations).

After we have a brief review of the approach, let's take another look. What was of interest was that the range for people responding to a query went from the teens, and below, up to a whopping 83% (Yvonne - missing post). The query was posted by Randy Seaver in his Saturday Night Genealogy Fun post at his Genea-Musings blog. Randy, himself, had a number about 53%.

Again, on the approach, the idea is to count from yourself backward through the earlier generations. So, you have two parents; they have two parents, and so forth. So, it's a power of two (minus yourself) that you have each time.

Some generations can have a 100% number, if everyone is known. We usually expect that with the earlier generations (closer to you). As well, if you take your four grand-parents, what you know about their heritage will differ. For some, you may know a lot. For others, you many know little.

What has been noted is that many, with New England ancestry, know a lot about their ancestors. The high number, reported above, was for someone who was from Quebec (Canada).

Fore note: Randy had four columns: possible - #1, sum1; identified - #2, sum2. He reported, for each generation, sum2/sum1 (times 100, to get the percentage value). In the below, what is reported is #2 over #1 (adjusted, accordingly). With this, we can see what we know for each generation.

To the prior table, I added three columns (see image in this post). Each of these will show "Percentages of known, by generation." The first column gives the ratio (converted to percentage) by generation, in toto. In this case, 45.7% of generation-nine ancestors are known (117 of the 256 possible). As one can see, this percentage drops off as we go backward in time. So, too, does the accumulative numbers drop (51.3%, which is 262 of the 511 possible at this generation).

Percentages by grandparents
(of which, of course,
there are four)

Now, here's the thing. We can break out the contribution by each of the four grandparents. In this case, both of the grandmothers were members of families who arrived later (1800s). So, we can then focus on the two grandfathers (1600s arrival).

The next column is the number for the paternal grandfather. Then, we have a column the maternal grandfather.

The first thing to notice is that we have 100%, for these two, out through generation seven. Then, we get the drop off that is expected. But, notice, too, that the percentages are high for a couple of generations, above 80%. After that, the paternal side goes down more quickly.

The big reality is that, after generation eleven, we get a huge drop off. It might be good to compare these generations against the trees of the better-studied individuals (rich and famous, for whom genealogists like work).

Caveat: Generation 10, in this case, is for someone who was born toward the middle of the 1900s. Since then, trees for many might be talking generation 12, or more, for the same ancestor (immigrant).

Remarks:  Modified: 12/23/2024

08/13/2015 -- Another example, using the generational count.

08/14/2015 -- I will do the chart using Dr. Frank's ahnentafels (BB Gardner and LF Wilson).

10/25/2019 -- I'm now GitHub'ing so plenty of pending technical work and its detail are in the offing. Still at it with the numbers. 

08/09/2023 -- Removed link to the "numbers" post at Yvonne's blog. She is taking a breather. 

What's your number?

People have thought using numbers for a very long time (arguable point emphasizing the intuitionists' school's view - see Brouwer, for one), The computer can be a boon to that sort of thing.

Too, people have fun, even genealogists. How else will they suffer the tedium (again, arguable, as all sorts of other means can be found)? -- Have you noticed the proliferation of genealogy blogs (look at Randy's list - see below)?  Of course, this is such an addition.

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Now, that being said, I ran across Randy Seaver's Genea-Musings, today (had been there earlier, but the difference, today, was that I got caught - one needs to be teflon'd to avoid being entrapped in the sticky web). He had used the Saturday Night Genealogy Fun as motivation to show his number. In brief, the idea is to count how many ancestors are known up to a generation, in this case, 10, or further back. His post has a table that shows the accumulative count by generation.

In the comment section of Randy's post, many researchers reported their numbers. The range was wide from 83% (more later) down to the teens. Randy's number was 52.83%. In other words, of the 1023 ancestors (which might be duplicated due to intermarriage), he has identified 541.

Crista Cowan seems to have started this, back in August of 2012. Her number is a little lower (the 30s). The largest count that I saw was Yvonne's (her site is missing the post) who claims a whopping 82.7%. In other words, she knows 846 of her 1024 ancestors through generation 10.

Earlier, I had mentioned that Princes William and Harry had 100% known up to about generation 8 with only a few holes after that (based upon a quick read, in a library, of a book that showed their heritage). It's nice to see this same level of filled-in tree can be found outside of the ruling royals (after all, the story is that they have to be aware in order to remove possible interlopers).

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So, now, given that. I have been working on some trees that include Thomas Gardner of Salem. On a quick count, I figured that the number, to date, would be close to 50%. See the image.

Disclosure: This represents about four years of work that, in part, leveraged off the work of others (nod, of course, to ancestry.com and rootsweb.com).

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Now, in looking at Thomas and Margaret, how many of these charts could be written up today? Granted, they would only be two of five-hundred-and-twelve (one-thousand-and-twenty-three, from your parents back) ancestors for that generation.

That, then, brings up how important it is to know about the collateral families in one's tree. We want to get out to about three or so generations and, then, get a count of such. That is on the task list to be done prior to the next major milestone (see 400th).

Remarks:  Modified: 08/09/2023

02/19/2014 -- A relook from two generations out.

09/01/2014 -- Gardner Research announced. "The Trials of the Wilson Family" published (TEG (2014) 34:155).

08/09/2023 -- Removed link to the "numbers" post at Yvonne's blog. She is taking a breather. 

Electronic footprint

There has been much written over the years about New England and the immigrants, such as Thomas Gardner and other Gardners . In some cases, there is active work to build an informational site. In other cases, we have books that are on-line.

What we are doing here is collecting and providing links to these sites, categorized by type. We start with the TGS sites and then will add others as we find them. Too, we have a list of earlier posts that pointed to these.

• Thomas Gardner Society: main site, Portal to truth, bibliography, Wikipedia, related families, Sources 
• Dr. Frank A. Gardner: Thomas Gardner (Planter)
•    
• WikiTree  
• 
  
• anceSTORY: Gardner      
•   
• familytreecircles: Thomas Gardner of Salem, Gardner researchers, 
• find-a-grave: Thomas Gardner,  
•  
• Great Migration Sketch: Thomas Gardner,   
• Dorchester Company: Members, TGS blog, 
•  
• trees at rootsweb.ancestry.com: 146 with sources (of these, 81 with parents),  
•  
• Reprints (putting a cover on copies of images made during digitization efforts) 
•  

Thomas died on 29 Dec 1674 and was buried in the plot at Gardner's Hill. His body is missing; we have some work cut out to find out the real story.

Remarks:  Modified: 02/28/2019

02/05/2014 -- Added related families (need to update links).

02/28/2019 --  A few more links plus an image from WikiTree. 

Telling the stories

In earlier posts, we looked at the Quaker theme: Lucretia (Coffin) Mott, Thomas and the Quakers, John Goff's article, and more. The recent Beacon issue has this same theme.

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The Lucretia post was picked up by Melissa D. Berry for the anceSTORY blog (see Jan 07). Too, Melissa is writing articles for the Newburyport News (example) and sees the importance of historical
fiction (she has proposed a project - more information later).

The Facebook page for anceSTORY is publicly readable and frequently updated.

One theme has been the Puritans' propensity for punishment (example). One wonders how it might have been if the Puritans would have inflicted punishment upon themselves rather than others.

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There are many Gardner connections to pursue as the theme is New England (for example, see this search result). Also, we do need to know the times and travails if we are to understand the ancestors' lot.

Remarks:  Modified: 03/02/2019

02/12/2014 -- Motivations will be a focus.

03/02/2019 -- Added image that list Melissa's great work. We're building an index via images at our portal to truth. 

Summary, 2013

The blog got its start on September 25, 2010. There were 32 posts added this past year. Total post count is 114.

The image shows reader activity by post for the Past 30 days and for All time. Compare with last year's list.

Past 30 days                                All time

It's nice to see that some 2013 posts made it to the All time list and that there is not much overlap between the two lists. Of late, some 2011 posts seem to be of interest.

Recaps: 2018, 2017 (missing), 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011.

Remarks:  Modified: 12/15/2018

12/15/2018 -- Added in link to recaps from the beginning.

Gardner's Beacon, Vol. III, No. 4

Two days ago, December 29th, was the passing date of Thomas Gardner of Salem. We need to have a yearly reminder set up for that day.

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Thomas and Margaret had nine children who grew up in Salem, MA. The early boys were born in England. John was born on Cape Ann in a pre-Conant and pre-Endicott Massachusetts.

All the children survived Thomas, except for Miriam who died early leaving young children. After Thomas' death, several of his children left Salem. Richard and John went to Nantucket. George became a citizen of Connecticut though he continued to own land in Massachusetts.

Thomas' last wife, Damaris, and her children were active Quakers. The Puritans did not like that belief system and responded with a heavy hand even though Charles II told the New England authorities to refrain from their persecution. Thomas' step-son, Samuel Shattuck, carried Charles II's message to Endicott who stayed his hand from awhile.

Unfortunately, Samuel's missive was too late for Mary Dyer and others.

We have only touched the surface here, only to the extent to start to see the Gardner involvement and influence. Expect that the topic will appear again.

We continue our "Annals" ways with this issue. It can be nice to see a timeline related to events. Also, we have a short list of Thomas' and Margaret's first-born grandchildren. We have two listed for Seeth since her first husband died young, during Thomas' life.

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See Vol. III, No. 4 of Gardner's Beacon for a look at the first generation of Thomas' descendants.

References:  see Sources (Current Issue)  

Remarks: Modified: 01/08/2014

Puritan entertainment

01/05/2014 -- anceSTORY Archives has a recent article on treatment of the Quakers.The image comes from an article written by Melissa Berry for the Newburyport News. One might title this, Puritan entertainment. No, they did not allow the usual pleasures; rather, inhuman (and inhumane) activities seemed to be their attraction. ... One thing that we can be strongly assured of [is this]: Thomas and his kin were not of those who tied women (in an unclad state or otherwise) to carts and dragged them through the streets (er, muddy cowpaths).

01/08/2014 -- We added Earlier Settlers of Nantucket to our Bibliography. It's interesting to see the Folger stories of the early Gardners. ... In another place, we saw both Richard and John being described as well-educated. From whence that education? The parents? If you say no, you're not very much insightful about human nature. A child's first teacher is the mother, then the father. So, if Richard and John were Quaker, well-educated, and good citizens of their community, the mother deserves a lot of credit. Now, who was she? In Hinchman's book, Margaret is noted as the mother. We'll have to look to see the source for that. If it does come down as family history, then one would think that the children would have known their mothers. In any case, Margaret, or whomever it was, needs to have recognition as being early-Quaker (definitely, before Fox made his splash upon history).

Where was he and is he?

One never knows what one will run across while browsing, and reading, at the NEHGS, or any like, site. I just ran across a map (The Essex Antiquarian - available via Google, pg 149) showing land owned by two cousins, Samuel Gardner and Abel Gardner, while looking at material for an entirely different search. The article was by Sidney Perley who was writing about Salem in 1700. Of course, Sidney is writing in 1900 or so, about 200 years after the fact.

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We, earlier, had looked at a couple of topics: Where is Thomas? and Where was Thomas? In answer to the first, we can say that he's interned somewhere near the Peabody boarder in the Harmony Grove cemetery. In answer to the second, we'll have to say it depends. But, we know that he spent some time in the area near where the Essex Institute is now.

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Lower part of Peabody,
Google (left), Perley (right)

The image shows a Perley map and a Google map side by side (somewhat oriented the same). I have marked three places on the maps for reference (Mill Pond, Burial Place, Gardner's Hill). It is about 3 miles (crow distance) from the Gardner's Hill to Mill Pond.

The Perley map is quite nice and would overlay very well if I could get a precise rotation (too, there have been a lot of changes in 100 years). Perley's writeup is based upon records and is the 9th in a series that ought to be part of the bibliography (right now, the only Perley document that we have sourced is based at The University of Virginia).

Both Samuel and Abel are grandsons (as such, they were first cousins) of Thomas and Margaret. Samuel is George's son. Abel is Samuel's son. Abel, and his wife, Sarah Porter, were buried near Thomas and were moved. The part owned by Abel had been owned by Thomas, originally.

Remarks:      Modified: 05/16/2019

03/28/2014 -- See Vol. IV, No. 1 for a discussion of the movement from Cape Ann to Salem.

03/12/2015 -- Dr. Frank's 1933 book (pg. 22) does not mention the move.

08/17/2015 -- Response to Wikipedia change that questions the move(?).

11/13/2018 -- With a new twist, as bodies and stones were also moved to the Trask site. Add in Sidney Perley's map of Gardner Hill.

05/16/2019 -- The map that compares Sidney's walk-about with Google is way off. That is because I was looking at landmarks and not paying attention to details, like distance. So, see this update: How close is close ? II. Here is the updated graphics.

Oh yes, we are now honing into the area.